Section: Ecology
Topic: Ecology, Statistics

Space-time species distribution modeling with opportunistic presence-only data: a case study of passerines in a protected area

Lasgorceux, Florian1 orcid ; Papaïx, Julien1 orcid; Bunz, Yoann2 orcid; Combrisson, Damien2 orcid; Opitz, Thomas1 orcid
1Biostatistics and Spatial Processes, INRAE, Avignon, Franceror
2Écrins National Park, Gap, Franceror

Corresponding author(s): Lasgorceux, Florian (florian.lasgorceux@proton.me)

10.24072/pcjournal.731 - Peer Community Journal, Volume 6 (2026), article no. e52

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Over the recent decades, Europe has experienced a significant decline in common bird species, particularly farmland species, due to anthropic pressures like agricultural intensification. Protected areas, such as the Écrins National Park (ENP) in France, can help mitigate these impacts. We evaluated whether an opportunistic presence-only dataset collected by trained ENP rangers contains biological signals strong enough to support robust statistical inference. Using a generalized additive Poisson model with spatial and spatio-temporal covariates, monthly latent spatio-temporal Gaussian random fields, and a non-spatial inter-annual effect, we estimated the relative abundance of 76 passerine species on a regular grid, with occurrences aggregated per spatio-temporal cell used as a proxy for sampling effort. The model showed good calibration for most species ($\text{AUC} > 0.8$) and reliably captured habitat preferences and migratory status. Relative-abundance trends in ENP were compared with relative abundance from three monitoring programs: STOM (ENP), STOC (France), and MHB (Switzerland). For most species with significant trends, model predictions aligned with survey-based trends. Forest specialists benefited most from the protected-area status, and farmland species declined more slowly in ENP than in France. High-elevation specialists generally decreased in both ENP and Switzerland. Discrepancies mostly arose for common species, likely reflecting uncorrected declines in ranger reporting rates. These results demonstrate that high-resolution opportunistic presence-only data can provide valuable insights into biological patterns and trends while reducing reliance on external data to estimate sampling effort.

Published online:
DOI: 10.24072/pcjournal.731
Type: Research article
Classification:
Keywords: Écrins National Park, INLA, habitat preference, MHB program, migratory status, opportunistic presence-only data, Poisson process, relative abundance, sampling effort, spatio-temporal model, STOC program, target group

Lasgorceux, Florian  1 ; Papaïx, Julien  1 ; Bunz, Yoann  2 ; Combrisson, Damien  2 ; Opitz, Thomas  1

1 Biostatistics and Spatial Processes, INRAE, Avignon, France ror
2 Écrins National Park, Gap, France ror
License: CC-BY 4.0
Copyrights: The authors retain unrestricted copyrights and publishing rights
Lasgorceux, F.; Papaïx, J.; Bunz, Y.; Combrisson, D.; Opitz, T. Space-time species distribution modeling with opportunistic presence-only data: a case study of passerines in a protected area. Peer Community Journal, Volume 6 (2026), article  no. e52. https://doi.org/10.24072/pcjournal.731
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PCI peer reviews and recommendation, and links to data, scripts, code and supplementary information: 10.24072/pci.ecology.100750

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