Section: Ecology
Topic: Ecology, Population biology

Comparing statistical and mechanistic models to identify the drivers of mortality within a rear-edge beech population

10.24072/pcjournal.60 - Peer Community Journal, Volume 1 (2021), article no. e55.

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Since several studies have been reporting an increase in the decline of forests, a major issue in ecology is to better understand and predict tree mortality. The interactions between the different factors and the physiological processes giving rise tree mortality, as well as the inter-individual variability in mortality risk, still need to be better assessed. This study investigates mortality in a rear-edge population of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) using a combination of statistical and process-based modelling approaches. Based on a survey of 4323 adult beeches since 2002 within a natural reserve, we first used statistical models to quantify the effects of competition, tree growth, size, defoliation and fungi presence on mortality. Secondly, we used an ecophysiological process-based model (PBM) to separate out the different mechanisms giving rise to temporal and inter-individual variations in mortality by simulating depletion of carbon stocks, loss of hydraulic conductance and damage due to late frosts in response to climate. The combination of all these simulated processes was associated with the temporal variations in the population mortality rate. The individual probability of mortality decreased with increasing mean growth, and increased with increasing crown defoliation, earliness of budburst, fungi presence and increasing competition, in the statistical model. Moreover, the interaction between tree size and defoliation was significant, indicating a stronger increase in mortality associated to defoliation in smaller than larger trees. Finally, the PBM predicted a higher conductance loss together with a higher level of carbon reserves for trees with earlier budburst, while the ability to defoliate the crown was found to limit the impact of hydraulic stress at the expense of the accumulation of carbon reserves. We discuss the convergences and divergences obtained between statistical and process-based approaches and we highlight the importance of combining them to characterize the different processes underlying mortality, and the factors modulating individual vulnerability to mortality.

Published online:
DOI: 10.24072/pcjournal.60
Type: Research article
Petit-Cailleux, Cathleen 1; Davi, Hendrik 1; Lefèvre, François 1; Garrigue, Joseph 2; Magdalou, Jean-André 2; Hurson, Christophe 3, 2; Magnanou, Elodie 2, 4; Oddou-Muratorio, Sylvie 1

1 INRAE, URFM, Avignon, France
2 Réserve Naturelle Nationale de la Forêt de la Massane, France
3 Fédération des Réserves Naturelles Catalanes, Prades, France
4 Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Biologie Intégrative des Organismes Marins, BIOM, F-66650 Banyuls-sur-Mer, France
License: CC-BY 4.0
Copyrights: The authors retain unrestricted copyrights and publishing rights
     author = {Petit-Cailleux, Cathleen and Davi, Hendrik and Lef\`evre, Fran\c{c}ois and Garrigue, Joseph and Magdalou, Jean-Andr\'e and Hurson, Christophe and Magnanou, Elodie and Oddou-Muratorio, Sylvie},
     title = {Comparing statistical and mechanistic models to identify the drivers of mortality within a rear-edge beech population},
     journal = {Peer Community Journal},
     eid = {e55},
     publisher = {Peer Community In},
     volume = {1},
     year = {2021},
     doi = {10.24072/pcjournal.60},
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AU  - Lefèvre, François
AU  - Garrigue, Joseph
AU  - Magdalou, Jean-André
AU  - Hurson, Christophe
AU  - Magnanou, Elodie
AU  - Oddou-Muratorio, Sylvie
TI  - Comparing statistical and mechanistic models to identify the drivers of mortality within a rear-edge beech population
JO  - Peer Community Journal
PY  - 2021
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PB  - Peer Community In
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DO  - 10.24072/pcjournal.60
ID  - 10_24072_pcjournal_60
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%A Petit-Cailleux, Cathleen
%A Davi, Hendrik
%A Lefèvre, François
%A Garrigue, Joseph
%A Magdalou, Jean-André
%A Hurson, Christophe
%A Magnanou, Elodie
%A Oddou-Muratorio, Sylvie
%T Comparing statistical and mechanistic models to identify the drivers of mortality within a rear-edge beech population
%J Peer Community Journal
%D 2021
%V 1
%I Peer Community In
%R 10.24072/pcjournal.60
%F 10_24072_pcjournal_60
Petit-Cailleux, Cathleen; Davi, Hendrik; Lefèvre, François; Garrigue, Joseph; Magdalou, Jean-André; Hurson, Christophe; Magnanou, Elodie; Oddou-Muratorio, Sylvie. Comparing statistical and mechanistic models to identify the drivers of mortality within a rear-edge beech population. Peer Community Journal, Volume 1 (2021), article  no. e55. doi : 10.24072/pcjournal.60.

PCI peer reviews and recommendation, and links to data, scripts, code and supplementary information: 10.24072/pci.ecology.100070

Conflict of interest of the recommender and peer reviewers:
The recommender in charge of the evaluation of the article and the reviewers declared that they have no conflict of interest (as defined in the code of conduct of PCI) with the authors or with the content of the article.

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