Section: Ecology
Topic:
Ecology,
Population biology,
Environmental sciences
Four decades of phenology in an alpine amphibian: trends, stasis, and climatic drivers
Corresponding author(s): Lenzi, Omar (omar.lenzi@ieu.uzh.ch)
10.24072/pcjournal.240 - Peer Community Journal, Volume 3 (2023), article no. e15.
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Strong phenological shifts in response to changes in climatic conditions have been reported for many species, including amphibians, which are expected to breed earlier. Phenological shifts in breeding are observed in a wide number of amphibian populations, but less is known about populations living at high elevations, which are predicted to be more sensitive to climate change than lowland populations. The goal of this study is to assess the main factors determining the timing of breeding in an alpine population of the common toad (Bufo bufo) and to describe the observed shifts in its breeding phenology. We modelled the effect of environmental variables on the start and peak dates of the breeding season using 39 years of individual-based data. In addition, we investigated the effect of the lunar cycle, as well as the individual variation in breeding phenology. Finally, to assess the individual heterogeneity in the timing of breeding, we calculated the repeatability of the timing of arrival at the breeding site. Breeding advanced to earlier dates in the first years of the study but the trend continued only until the mid 1990s, and stabilised afterwards. Overall, toads are now breeding on average around 30 days earlier than at the start of the study period. High temperatures and low snow cover in winter and spring, as well as reduced spring precipitation were all associated with earlier breeding. Additionally, we found evidence of males arriving on average before females at the breeding site but no clear and strong effect of the lunar cycle. We only found weak evidence of among-individual variation in shifts in the breeding phenology, as well as a low repeatability of arrival timing. Our findings show that the observed changes in breeding phenology are strongly associated with the environmental conditions. These results contribute to filling a knowledge gap on the effects of climate change on alpine amphibian populations. Moreover, we show that changes in phenology, especially in the mountains, can be hard to predict as local microclimatic conditions do not necessarily reflect the observed global climatic trends.
Type: Research article
Lenzi, Omar 1; Grossenbacher, Kurt 2; Zumbach, Silvia 3; Lüscher, Beatrice 4; Althaus, Sarah 4; Schmocker, Daniela 5; Recher, Helmut 6; Thoma, Marco 7; Ozgul, Arpat 1; Schmidt, Benedikt R. 1, 3
CC-BY 4.0
@article{10_24072_pcjournal_240,
author = {Lenzi, Omar and Grossenbacher, Kurt and Zumbach, Silvia and L\"uscher, Beatrice and Althaus, Sarah and Schmocker, Daniela and Recher, Helmut and Thoma, Marco and Ozgul, Arpat and Schmidt, Benedikt R.},
title = {Four decades of phenology in an alpine amphibian: trends, stasis, and climatic drivers},
journal = {Peer Community Journal},
eid = {e15},
publisher = {Peer Community In},
volume = {3},
year = {2023},
doi = {10.24072/pcjournal.240},
url = {https://peercommunityjournal.org/articles/10.24072/pcjournal.240/}
}
TY - JOUR AU - Lenzi, Omar AU - Grossenbacher, Kurt AU - Zumbach, Silvia AU - Lüscher, Beatrice AU - Althaus, Sarah AU - Schmocker, Daniela AU - Recher, Helmut AU - Thoma, Marco AU - Ozgul, Arpat AU - Schmidt, Benedikt R. TI - Four decades of phenology in an alpine amphibian: trends, stasis, and climatic drivers JO - Peer Community Journal PY - 2023 VL - 3 PB - Peer Community In UR - https://peercommunityjournal.org/articles/10.24072/pcjournal.240/ DO - 10.24072/pcjournal.240 ID - 10_24072_pcjournal_240 ER -
%0 Journal Article %A Lenzi, Omar %A Grossenbacher, Kurt %A Zumbach, Silvia %A Lüscher, Beatrice %A Althaus, Sarah %A Schmocker, Daniela %A Recher, Helmut %A Thoma, Marco %A Ozgul, Arpat %A Schmidt, Benedikt R. %T Four decades of phenology in an alpine amphibian: trends, stasis, and climatic drivers %J Peer Community Journal %D 2023 %V 3 %I Peer Community In %U https://peercommunityjournal.org/articles/10.24072/pcjournal.240/ %R 10.24072/pcjournal.240 %F 10_24072_pcjournal_240
Lenzi, Omar; Grossenbacher, Kurt; Zumbach, Silvia; Lüscher, Beatrice; Althaus, Sarah; Schmocker, Daniela; Recher, Helmut; Thoma, Marco; Ozgul, Arpat; Schmidt, Benedikt R. Four decades of phenology in an alpine amphibian: trends, stasis, and climatic drivers. Peer Community Journal, Volume 3 (2023), article no. e15. doi : 10.24072/pcjournal.240. https://peercommunityjournal.org/articles/10.24072/pcjournal.240/
PCI peer reviews and recommendation, and links to data, scripts, code and supplementary information: 10.24072/pci.ecology.100469
Conflict of interest of the recommender and peer reviewers:
The recommender in charge of the evaluation of the article and the reviewers declared that they have no conflict of interest (as defined in the code of conduct of PCI) with the authors or with the content of the article.
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