Section: Mathematical & Computational Biology
Topic: Biophysics and computational biology, Health sciences, Genetics/Genomics

Estimating dates of origin and end of COVID-19 epidemics

Beneteau, Thomas1   ; Elie, Baptiste1   ; Sofonea, Mircea T.1 ; Alizon, Samuel1 
1 MIVEGEC, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, IRD – Montpellier, France

Corresponding author(s): Beneteau, Thomas (thomas.beneteau@ird.fr); Elie, Baptiste (baptiste.elie@ird.fr)

10.24072/pcjournal.63 - Peer Community Journal, Volume 1 (2021), article no. e70.

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Estimating the date at which an epidemic started in a country and the date at which it can end depending on interventions intensity are important to guide public health responses. Both are potentially shaped by similar factors including stochasticity (due to small population sizes), superspreading events, and memory effects (the fact that the occurrence of some events, e.g. recovering from an infection, depend on the past, e.g. the number of days since the infection). Focusing on COVID-19 epidemics, we develop and analyse mathematical models to explore how these three factors may affect early and final epidemic dynamics. Regarding the date of origin, we find limited effects on the mean estimates, but strong effects on their variances. Regarding the date of extinction following lockdown onset, mean values decrease with stochasticity or with the presence of superspreading events. These results underline the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in infection history and transmission patterns to accurately capture early and late epidemic dynamics.

Published online:
DOI: 10.24072/pcjournal.63
Type: Research article

Beneteau, Thomas 1; Elie, Baptiste 1; Sofonea, Mircea T. 1; Alizon, Samuel 1

1 MIVEGEC, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, IRD – Montpellier, France
License: CC-BY 4.0
Copyrights: The authors retain unrestricted copyrights and publishing rights 
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Beneteau, Thomas; Elie, Baptiste; Sofonea, Mircea T.; Alizon, Samuel. Estimating dates of origin and end of COVID-19 epidemics. Peer Community Journal, Volume 1 (2021), article  no. e70. doi : 10.24072/pcjournal.63. https://peercommunityjournal.org/articles/10.24072/pcjournal.63/

PCI peer reviews and recommendation, and links to data, scripts, code and supplementary information: 10.24072/pci.mcb.100004

Conflict of interest of the recommender and peer reviewers:
The recommender in charge of the evaluation of the article and the reviewers declared that they have no conflict of interest (as defined in the code of conduct of PCI) with the authors or with the content of the article.

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