Section: Infections
Topic:
Population biology,
Applied mathematics,
Health sciences
A Bayesian analysis of birth pulse effects on the probability of detecting Ebola virus in fruit bats
Corresponding author(s): Pleydell, David R.J. (david.pleydell@inrae.fr)
10.24072/pcjournal.380 - Peer Community Journal, Volume 4 (2024), article no. e39.
Get full text PDF Peer reviewed and recommended by PCISince 1976 various species of Ebolavirus have caused a series of zoonotic outbreaks and public health crises in Africa. Bats have long been hypothesised to function as important hosts for ebolavirus maintenance, however the transmission ecology for these viruses remains poorly understood. Several studies have demonstrated rapid seroconversion for ebolavirus antibodies in young bats, yet paradoxically few PCR studies have confirmed the identity of the circulating viral species causing these seroconversions. The current study presents an age-structured epidemiological model that characterises the effects of seasonal birth pulses on ebolavirus transmission within a colony of African straw-coloured fruit bats (Eidolon helvum). Bayesian calibration is performed using previously published serological data collected from Cameroon, and age-structure data from Ghana. The model predicts that annual birth pulses most likely give rise to annual outbreaks, although more complex dynamic patterns – including skip years, multi-annual cycles and chaos – may be possible. Weeks 30 to 31 of each year were estimated to be the most likely period for isolating the circulating virus in Cameroon. The probability that a previous PCR campaign failed to detect Ebola virus, assuming that it was circulating, was estimated to be one in two thousand. This raises questions such as (1) what can we actually learn from ebolavirus serology tests performed without positive controls? (2) are current PCR tests sufficiently sensitive? (3) are swab samples really appropriate for ebolavirus detection? The current results provide important insights for the design of future field studies aiming to detect Ebola viruses from sylvatic hosts, and can contribute to risk assessments concerning the timing of zoonotic outbreaks.
Type: Research article
Pleydell, David R.J. 1, 2, 3; Ndong Bass, Innocent 4; Mba Djondzo, Flaubert Auguste 4; Meta Djomsi, Dowbiss 4; Kouanfack, Charles 4; Peeters, Martine 5; Cappelle, Julien 2, 3
@article{10_24072_pcjournal_380, author = {Pleydell, David R.J. and Ndong Bass, Innocent and Mba Djondzo, Flaubert Auguste and Meta Djomsi, Dowbiss and Kouanfack, Charles and Peeters, Martine and Cappelle, Julien}, title = {A {Bayesian} analysis of birth pulse effects on the probability of detecting {Ebola} virus in fruit bats}, journal = {Peer Community Journal}, eid = {e39}, publisher = {Peer Community In}, volume = {4}, year = {2024}, doi = {10.24072/pcjournal.380}, language = {en}, url = {https://peercommunityjournal.org/articles/10.24072/pcjournal.380/} }
TY - JOUR AU - Pleydell, David R.J. AU - Ndong Bass, Innocent AU - Mba Djondzo, Flaubert Auguste AU - Meta Djomsi, Dowbiss AU - Kouanfack, Charles AU - Peeters, Martine AU - Cappelle, Julien TI - A Bayesian analysis of birth pulse effects on the probability of detecting Ebola virus in fruit bats JO - Peer Community Journal PY - 2024 VL - 4 PB - Peer Community In UR - https://peercommunityjournal.org/articles/10.24072/pcjournal.380/ DO - 10.24072/pcjournal.380 LA - en ID - 10_24072_pcjournal_380 ER -
%0 Journal Article %A Pleydell, David R.J. %A Ndong Bass, Innocent %A Mba Djondzo, Flaubert Auguste %A Meta Djomsi, Dowbiss %A Kouanfack, Charles %A Peeters, Martine %A Cappelle, Julien %T A Bayesian analysis of birth pulse effects on the probability of detecting Ebola virus in fruit bats %J Peer Community Journal %D 2024 %V 4 %I Peer Community In %U https://peercommunityjournal.org/articles/10.24072/pcjournal.380/ %R 10.24072/pcjournal.380 %G en %F 10_24072_pcjournal_380
Pleydell, David R.J.; Ndong Bass, Innocent; Mba Djondzo, Flaubert Auguste; Meta Djomsi, Dowbiss; Kouanfack, Charles; Peeters, Martine; Cappelle, Julien. A Bayesian analysis of birth pulse effects on the probability of detecting Ebola virus in fruit bats. Peer Community Journal, Volume 4 (2024), article no. e39. doi : 10.24072/pcjournal.380. https://peercommunityjournal.org/articles/10.24072/pcjournal.380/
PCI peer reviews and recommendation, and links to data, scripts, code and supplementary information: 10.24072/pci.infections.100195
Conflict of interest of the recommender and peer reviewers:
The recommender in charge of the evaluation of the article and the reviewers declared that they have no conflict of interest (as defined in the code of conduct of PCI) with the authors or with the content of the article.
[1] A systematic review of vegetation phenology in Africa, Ecological Informatics, Volume 34 (2016), pp. 117-128 (Publisher: Elsevier) | DOI
[2] Viral haemorrhagic fever in southern Sudan and northern Zaire. Preliminary studies on the aetiological agent, Lancet (1977), pp. 571-573 | DOI
[3] Disentangling serology to elucidate henipa-and filovirus transmission in Madagascar fruit bats, Journal of Animal Ecology, Volume 88 (2019) no. 7, pp. 1001-1016 (Publisher: Wiley Online Library) | DOI
[4] Longitudinal monitoring in Cambodia suggests higher circulation of alpha and betacoronaviruses in juvenile and immature bats of three species, Scientific Reports, Volume 11 (2021) no. 1, p. 24145 (Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK London) | DOI
[5] Nipah virus circulation at human–bat interfaces, Cambodia, Bulletin of the World Health Organization, Volume 98 (2020) no. 8, p. 539 (Publisher: World Health Organization) | DOI
[6] Ebola virus maintenance: if not (only) bats, what else?, Viruses, Volume 10 (2018) no. 10, p. 549 (Publisher: MDPI) | DOI
[7] Effects of biological and environmental factors on filovirus serology in bats in Guinea
[8] Possible sexual transmission of Ebola virus—Liberia, 2015, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Volume 64 (2015) no. 17, p. 479
[9] Survey of Ebola viruses in frugivorous and insectivorous bats in Guinea, Cameroon, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2015–2017, Emerging infectious diseases, Volume 24 (2018) no. 12, p. 2228 (Publisher: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) | DOI
[10] Temporal evolution of the humoral antibody response after Ebola virus disease in Guinea: a 60-month observational prospective cohort study, The Lancet Microbe, Volume 2 (2021) no. 12, p. e676-e684 (Publisher: Elsevier) | DOI
[11] Dynamics of antibodies to Ebolaviruses in an \emphEidolon helvum bat colony in Cameroon, Viruses, Volume 14 (2022) no. 3, p. 560 (Publisher: MDPI) | DOI
[12] Nipah virus dynamics in bats and implications for spillover to humans, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 117 (2020) no. 46, pp. 29190-29201 (Publisher: National Acad Sciences) | DOI
[13] Duration of maternal antibodies against canine distemper virus and Hendra virus in pteropid bats, PLoS one, Volume 8 (2013) no. 6, p. e67584 (Publisher: Public Library of Science San Francisco, USA) | DOI
[14] Ebola, New England Journal of Medicine, Volume 382 (2020) no. 19, pp. 1832-1842 (Publisher: Mass Medical Soc) | DOI
[15] Ebola virus and persistent chronic infection: when does replication cease?, Annals of Translational Medicine, Volume 6 (2018) no. Suppl 1 (Publisher: AME Publications) | DOI
[16] Host and viral ecology determine bat rabies seasonality and maintenance, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 108 (2011) no. 25, pp. 10208-10213 (Publisher: National Acad Sciences) | DOI
[17] What is stirring in the reservoir? Modelling mechanisms of henipavirus circulation in fruit bat hosts, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, Volume 374 (2019) no. 1782, p. 20190021 (Publisher: The Royal Society) | DOI
[18] The discovery of Bombali virus adds further support for bats as hosts of ebolaviruses, Nature microbiology, Volume 3 (2018) no. 10, pp. 1084-1089 (Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK London) | DOI
[19] Biannual birth pulses allow filoviruses to persist in bat populations, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Volume 282 (2015) no. 1803, p. 20142591 (Publisher: The Royal Society) | DOI
[20] Maternal antibody and the maintenance of a lyssavirus in populations of seasonally breeding African bats, PloS one, Volume 13 (2018) no. 6, p. e0198563 (Publisher: Public Library of Science San Francisco, CA USA) | DOI
[21] Demography of straw-colored fruit bats in Ghana, Journal of mammalogy, Volume 93 (2012) no. 5, pp. 1393-1404 (Publisher: American Society of Mammalogists 810 East 10th Street, PO Box 1897, Lawrence …) | DOI
[22] Ebola virus antibodies in fruit bats, Ghana, West Africa, Emerging infectious diseases, Volume 18 (2012) no. 7, p. 1207 (Publisher: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) | DOI
[23] Predicting Ebola virus disease risk and the role of African bat birthing, Epidemics, Volume 29 (2019), p. 100366 (Publisher: Elsevier) | DOI
[24] Ebola virus disease, Nature reviews Disease primers, Volume 6 (2020) no. 1, pp. 1-31 (Publisher: Nature Publishing Group) | DOI
[25] Endemic persistence of a highly contagious pathogen: Foot-and-mouth disease in its wildlife host, Science, Volume 374 (2021) no. 6563, pp. 104-109 (Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science) | DOI
[26] How should environmental stress affect the population dynamics of disease?, Ecology Letters, Volume 6 (2003) no. 7, pp. 654-664 (Publisher: Wiley Online Library) | DOI
[27] Fruit bats as reservoirs of Ebola virus, Nature, Volume 438 (2005) no. 7068, pp. 575-576 (Publisher: Nature Publishing Group) | DOI
[28] Bat-borne virus diversity, spillover and emergence, Nature Reviews Microbiology, Volume 18 (2020) no. 8, pp. 461-471 (Publisher: Nature Publishing Group) | DOI
[29] Density dependence and persistence of Morogoro arenavirus transmission in a fluctuating population of its reservoir host, Journal of Animal Ecology, Volume 89 (2020) no. 2, pp. 506-518 (Publisher: Wiley Online Library) | DOI
[30] Recurrence plots for the analysis of complex systems, Physics reports, Volume 438 (2007) no. 5-6, pp. 237-329 (Publisher: Elsevier) | DOI
[31] Molecular evidence of sexual transmission of Ebola virus, New England Journal of Medicine, Volume 373 (2015) no. 25, pp. 2448-2454 (Publisher: Mass Medical Soc) | DOI
[32] Outbreaks in a rapidly changing Central Africa — lessons from Ebola, New England Journal of Medicine, Volume 379 (2018) no. 13, pp. 1198-1201 (Publisher: Mass Medical Soc) | DOI
[33] A combination of probabilistic and mechanistic approaches for predicting the spread of African swine fever on Merry Island, Epidemics, Volume 40 (2022), p. 100596 (Publisher: Elsevier) | DOI
[34] Filoviruses in bats: current knowledge and future directions, Viruses, Volume 6 (2014) no. 4, pp. 1759-1788 (Publisher: MDPI) | DOI
[35] Ebola virus antibodies in fruit bats, Bangladesh, Emerging infectious diseases, Volume 19 (2013) no. 2, p. 270 (Publisher: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) | DOI
[36] Experimental inoculation of Egyptian fruit bats (\emphRousettus aegyptiacus) with Ebola virus, Viruses, Volume 8 (2016) no. 2, p. 29 (Publisher: MDPI) | DOI
[37] Support for viral persistence in bats from age-specific serology and models of maternal immunity, Scientific reports, Volume 8 (2018) no. 1, pp. 1-11 (Publisher: Nature Publishing Group) | DOI
[38] Bat trait, genetic and pathogen data from large-scale investigations of African fruit bats, \emphEidolon helvum, Scientific data, Volume 3 (2016) no. 1, pp. 1-11 (Publisher: Nature Publishing Group) | DOI
[39] The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Volume 281 (2014) no. 1786, p. 20132962 (Publisher: The Royal Society) | DOI
[40] nimbleNoBounds: Transformed Distributions for Improved MCMC Efficiency, https://github.com/DRJP/nimbleNoBounds, 2023 (Version Number: 1.0.2) | DOI
[41] R, C and NIMBLE code for Yaounde-Ebola-E.helvum modelling paper, https://zenodo.org/records/8276172 (2023) | DOI
[42] Sampling to elucidate the dynamics of infections in reservoir hosts, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, Volume 374 (2019) no. 1782, p. 20180336 (Publisher: The Royal Society) | DOI
[43] CODA: Convergence Diagnosis and Output Analysis for MCMC, R News, Volume 6 (2006) no. 1, pp. 7-11
[44] R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, 2022
[45] Food availability and annual migration of the straw-colored fruit bat (\emphEidolon helvum), Journal of Zoology, Volume 268 (2006) no. 1, pp. 35-44 (Publisher: Wiley Online Library) | DOI
[46] Contact network structure explains the changing epidemiology of pertussis, Science, Volume 330 (2010) no. 6006, pp. 982-985 (Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science) | DOI
[47] Egyptian rousette bats maintain long-term protective immunity against Marburg virus infection despite diminished antibody levels, Scientific reports, Volume 7 (2017) no. 1, p. 8763 (Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK London) | DOI
[48] Comparative analysis of serologic cross-reactivity using convalescent sera from filovirus-experimentally infected fruit bats, Scientific Reports, Volume 9 (2019) no. 1, pp. 1-12 (Publisher: Springer) | DOI
[49] Solving Differential Equations in R: Package deSolve, Journal of Statistical Software, Volume 33 (2010) no. 9, pp. 1-25 | DOI
[50] Seasonal dynamics of recurrent epidemics, Nature, Volume 446 (2007) no. 7135, pp. 533-536 (Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK London) | DOI
[51] Predicting re-emergence times of dengue epidemics at low reproductive numbers: DENV1 in Rio de Janeiro, 1986–1990, Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Volume 17 (2020) no. 167, p. 20200273 (Publisher: The Royal Society) | DOI
[52] Understanding spatio-temporal variation of vegetation phenology and rainfall seasonality in the monsoon Southeast Asia, Environmental research, Volume 147 (2016), pp. 621-629 (Publisher: Elsevier) | DOI
[53] Evolutionary maintenance of filovirus-like genes in bat genomes, BMC Evolutionary Biology, Volume 11 (2011) no. 1, pp. 1-12 (Publisher: BioMed Central) | DOI
[54] Epidemiological modeling to optimize the detection of zoonotic viruses in wild (reservoir) species, Peer Community In Infections, Volume 1 (2024), p. 100195 | DOI
[55] Systematic review of the literature on viral persistence and sexual transmission from recovered Ebola survivors: evidence and recommendations, BMJ open, Volume 6 (2016) no. 1, p. e008859 (Publisher: British Medical Journal Publishing Group) | DOI
[56] Isolation of Genetically Diverse Marburg Viruses from Egyptian Fruit Bats, PLOS Pathogens, Volume 5 (2009) no. 7, p. e1000536 | DOI
[57] Modelling the skip-and-resurgence of Japanese encephalitis epidemics in Hong Kong, Journal of theoretical biology, Volume 454 (2018), pp. 1-10 (Publisher: Elsevier) | DOI
[58] NIMBLE: MCMC, Particle Filtering, and Programmable Hierarchical Modeling, https://cran.r-project.org/package=nimble, 2022 (Version Number: 0.13.1) | DOI
[59] Programming with models: writing statistical algorithms for general model structures with NIMBLE, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, Volume 26 (2017), pp. 403-417 | DOI
Cited by Sources: