Section: Infections
Topic: Ecology, Statistics, Health sciences

Assessing the dynamics of  Mycobacterium bovis infection in three French badger populations

10.24072/pcjournal.363 - Peer Community Journal, Volume 4 (2024), article no. e10.

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The Sylvatub system is a national surveillance program established in 2011 in France to monitor infections caused by Mycobacterium bovis, the main etiologic agent of bovine tuberculosis, in wild species. This participatory program, involving both national and local stakeholders, allowed us to monitor the progression of the infection in three badger populations in clusters covering between 3222 km2 and 7698 km2 from 2013 to 2019. In each cluster, badgers were trapped and tested for M. bovis. Our first aim was to describe the dynamics of the infection in these clusters. We developed a Bayesian model of prevalence accounting for the spatial structure of the cases, the imperfect and variable sensitivity of the diagnostic tests, and the correlation of the infection status of badgers in the same commune caused by local factors (e.g., social structure and proximity to infected farms). This model revealed that the prevalence increased with time in one cluster (Dordogne/Charentes), decreased in the second cluster (Burgundy), and remained stable in the third cluster (Bearn). In all the clusters, the infection was strongly spatially structured, whereas the mean correlation between the infection status of the animals trapped in the same commune was negligible. Our second aim was to develop indicators for monitoring M. bovis infection by stakeholders of the program. We used the model to estimate, in each cluster, (i) the mean prevalence level at mid-period, and (ii) the proportion of the badger population that became infected in one year. We then derived two indicators of these two key quantities from a much simpler regression model, and we showed how these two indicators could be easily used to monitor the infection in the three clusters. We showed with simulations that these two simpler indicators were good approximations of these key quantities.

Published online:
DOI: 10.24072/pcjournal.363
Type: Research article
Calenge, Clément 1; Payne, Ariane 2; Réveillaud, Édouard 3; Richomme, Céline 4; Girard, Sébastien 5; Desvaux, Stéphanie 6

1 Office Français de la Biodiversité -- Direction Surveillance, Évaluation, Données -- Unité Données et Appui Méthodologique, Saint Benoist, BP 20. 78612 Le Perray en Yvelines, France
2 Office Français de la Biodiversité -- Research and Scientific Support Direction, Service Santé Agri, 45100 Orléans
3 Regional Directorate for Food of Nouvelle-Aquitaine, Limoges, France
4 ANSES, Nancy Laboratory for Rabies and Wildlife, Malzéville, France
5 Regional Directorate for Food of Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Dijon, France
6 Office Français de la Biodiversité -- Research and Scientific Support Direction , Service Santé Agri, 01330 Birieux, France
License: CC-BY 4.0
Copyrights: The authors retain unrestricted copyrights and publishing rights
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     title = {Assessing the dynamics of~ {\protect\emph{Mycobacterium} bovis} infection in three {French} badger populations},
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Calenge, Clément; Payne, Ariane; Réveillaud, Édouard; Richomme, Céline; Girard, Sébastien; Desvaux, Stéphanie. Assessing the dynamics of  Mycobacterium bovis infection in three French badger populations. Peer Community Journal, Volume 4 (2024), article  no. e10. doi : 10.24072/pcjournal.363. https://peercommunityjournal.org/articles/10.24072/pcjournal.363/

Peer reviewed and recommended by PCI : 10.24072/pci.infections.100088

Conflict of interest of the recommender and peer reviewers:
The recommender in charge of the evaluation of the article and the reviewers declared that they have no conflict of interest (as defined in the code of conduct of PCI) with the authors or with the content of the article.

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